AGP Executive Report

G7 & Middle East Energy Shock: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva welcomed the US-Iran ceasefire but warned energy and supply disruptions will fade only gradually, with growth risks still elevated. Strait of Hormuz Logistics: Trump says the Strait will be “completely open” from Friday after de-mining, while Macron pushes for a rapid French-led mission (carrier, frigates, minesweepers) to reopen shipping fast and safely. Eurozone Inflation Watch: ECB Lagarde welcomed the deal’s potential to ease Hormuz risks, but Joachim Nagel cautioned there’s no immediate relief for inflation. Trade Fight: Macron refuses to scrap France’s 3% digital tax despite Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on French wine and champagne. Defence Procurement in Europe: Canada’s Marconi Technologies won a SAFE contract worth over $10m to supply tactical radios to Poland, a first under the EU defence borrowing framework. Paris Arms Expo Fallout: Eurosatory shut several Israeli booths overnight, allowing only defensive systems—raising friction in France’s defence trade. E-commerce Expansion: Kaufland launches its online marketplace in Spain and the Netherlands, adding 220m consumers across Europe. French Innovation Pipeline: TISSIUM selected for French Tech Next40, boosting visibility for medical tech.

G7 in France: Leaders gather at Evian-les-Bains as the US and Iran announce a preliminary peace deal, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen and oil sliding to a three-month low—markets are betting on calmer shipping and lower energy pressure. Sanctions & nuclear conditions: UK, France, Germany and Italy say they’re ready to lift Iran sanctions only after clear, verifiable nuclear steps, with the IAEA in the loop. Trade friction: Trump warns France over its digital services tax, threatening 100% wine tariffs unless the levy on US tech firms is dropped—an immediate flashpoint for G7 talks. Defense industry: Renault and Thales plan a fast-to-produce multi-mission military vehicle for Eurosatory, while France’s army pushes a “kill web” concept to speed sensor-to-effector targeting. AI infrastructure: Schneider Electric and Foxconn team up to scale next-gen AI data centers, pairing power and cooling expertise with Foxconn’s compute integration. Healthcare R&D: Enterome shares interim iNHL Phase 1/2 results showing durable CD8 T-cell responses for its OncoMimics EO2463.

India-France Deal Push: PM Narendra Modi and President Emmanuel Macron in Nice used the “Bharat Innovates 2026” platform to announce an Innovation Roadmap 2030, a joint AI working group, and a mechanism to double bilateral trade within five years (target: USD 32bn), alongside 13 outcomes spanning defence, nuclear cooperation, space and payments. Defence & Manufacturing: Talks stressed “Make in India” via co-design, co-development, co-production and co-manufacturing, including Rafale localisation and deeper industrial ties. Payments & Digital Links: UPI expansion in France, including airport rollouts, and a classified-data security pact were part of the package. French Tech Showcase: Indian deep-tech firms highlighted at the event included QNu Labs’ “quantum security dome” pitch. G7 Context in France: The summit in Évian is set against Iran/Ukraine tensions, with Trump-Macron scheduling and Hormuz demining discussions expected to shape the agenda.

G7 in France, security and trade pressure: Ahead of the Evian summit (June 15-17), Geneva businesses boarded up as authorities tighten security for anti-G7 protests, while debate grows over China’s exclusion and the agenda is dominated by Iran, Ukraine and global economic imbalances. Modi-Macron-India-France tech push: PM Narendra Modi arrives in Nice and will inaugurate Bharat Innovates 2026 with Macron, spotlighting deep-tech sectors like advanced computing, semiconductors, space, biotech, energy and manufacturing with hundreds of investors. Energy geopolitics: A new push for energy dominance pits China’s buildout of renewables and nuclear against US LNG-centered partnerships in Europe, as the Iran file and Strait of Hormuz shipping security loom over G7 talks. Industrial capacity & infrastructure: France is moving on major energy and transport plans, including offshore wind tenders (10GW) and a new high-speed rival route (Paris–Bordeaux) plus the launch of solar carport rules for large parking lots. Food & farming labor: France is recruiting Uzbek seasonal farm workers for fruit and vegetable harvesting, offering €1,650 monthly pay under a new mobility scheme. Supercomputing collaboration: Europe and Japan are teaming up to push supercomputing performance, aiming to strengthen an alternative ecosystem for research and industry.

G7 Energy & Minerals: Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi heads to Europe for talks ahead of the G7 in Evian, pushing energy security and a coordinated critical-minerals stockpiling plan as shipping risks linger around the Strait of Hormuz. Franco-Indian Tech Push: PM Narendra Modi arrives in Nice for bilateral talks with Emmanuel Macron and the joint inauguration of “Bharat Innovates 2026,” spotlighting India’s deep-tech ecosystem and France-India research/industry links. Iran Deal Watch (Shipping Risk): US-Iran negotiations appear close to a deal that could reopen Hormuz, with Trump signaling a Sunday signing while Iran urges caution; G7 allies including France are also flagged for demining support—key for global oil and LNG flows. Airbus Delivery Pressure: Airbus faces a tough push to hit 2026 targets for A321XLR deliveries amid supply-chain strain, even as demand and backlog remain strong. Circular Materials: France sees momentum for textile-to-textile recycling as circularity rules tighten. Banking Impact: The ECB’s latest rate hike is expected to widen eurozone bank profit margins, with Greece cited for a ~€147m boost.

G7 in France, India in the spotlight: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has departed for France and Slovakia to attend the G7 in Evian and hold talks with Emmanuel Macron, with “Bharat Innovates 2026” in Nice on June 14 bringing together Indian deep-tech start-ups, universities and hundreds of investors. Franco-German defence shake-up: Europe’s €100bn FCAS next-gen fighter jet effort has effectively collapsed after industrial incompatibilities, raising questions about how France and Germany will rebuild their security plans. Energy policy with EU impact: EU ministers agreed to tighten rules on when countries can suspend the carbon border fee for imports, aiming to boost certainty for low-carbon investment while protecting European industry. Offshore wind push: France is moving ahead with large-scale tenders for offshore wind capacity, including a major 10GW call. Aviation fuel strategy: India is resisting high jet-fuel export margins and prioritising domestic fuel security, despite surplus ATF capacity. Industrial logistics: DHL is expanding its new energy logistics network and targeting €3bn in related revenue by 2030. Business & tech diplomacy: France-Indonesia ties get a boost via a high-level business council formed around major deal discussions during Prabowo’s France visit. Environment & health risk: A new analysis flags agricultural and wildlife farming settings as overlooked hotspots for rodent-borne hantavirus exposure, calling for a stronger One Health approach.

France-India Deep-Tech Push: PM Narendra Modi and President Emmanuel Macron will jointly inaugurate “Bharat Innovates 2026” in Nice on June 14, spotlighting 13 sectors from semiconductors and space to biotech, energy, healthcare and manufacturing, with hundreds of investors and Indian innovators expected to drive new partnerships. Defence & Industry Intelligence: Canada’s PM Mark Carney and Macron announced a new general security of information agreement to enable classified intelligence sharing across defence, space, AI and aerospace ahead of the G7. Nuclear Startup IPO Bet: Paris-based Newcleo says it plans to list on Nasdaq via a SPAC, shifting its first deployment site from France to the US to speed plutonium fuel access, depending on a US DOE surplus-plutonium programme. AI’s Environmental Cost: A UN scientist report warns AI’s water and power demand could surge sharply by 2030, raising concerns for energy and water stress. Energy & Materials in Focus: France is set to open tenders for 10 GW of offshore wind, while Atos and Microsoft expand secure “agentic AI” rollout to 56,000 employees across 54 countries. Water Security Cooperation: France and Kazakhstan advanced a long-term plan to protect Lake Balkhash, combining climate, hydrology and digital tools for basin management.

EU Budget Fight: EU leaders kick off a bruising 2028-2034 budget battle next week, with a proposed 2% cut that largely protects farm and cohesion money while squeezing “competitiveness” funding. Energy Transition & Industry: France is pushing ahead with a mega 10GW offshore wind tender and a separate 10GW offshore wind opening, as grid and supply-chain pressure grows. Digital Health Sovereignty: Dassault Systèmes partners with PariSanté Campus to help healthcare startups scale with virtual twins and sovereign cloud, aiming to meet EU data-security rules. Supply Chain Watch: GEP’s index flags manufacturers front-loading inventory and purchases across Europe and beyond as disruption and inflation fears intensify. Cybersecurity Market: Privileged access management demand keeps rising as firms tighten identity and compliance controls. Food Supply Pressure: A report warns cheap Spanish tomato supply may be ending as wages, regulation and outside competition bite. Geopolitics for Industry: China urges cooperation with Macron ahead of the G7, as the EU weighs tougher trade steps on low-priced Chinese exports.

G7 Diplomacy in France: Leaders meet in Evian-les-Bains to narrow differences with Donald Trump, with Ukraine’s presence and Strait of Hormuz shipping on the agenda, as France pushes consensus on trade and global economic imbalances. Defense Industry Shake-up: Germany’s MTU says it’s “moving on” after FCAS engine work was cancelled, while “Team Gen 6” lines up eight firms for a new next-gen fighter path—another sign of how industrial disputes are reshaping European procurement. Renewables Deal: UAE’s Masdar finalises a €849m plan to buy a 49.99% Repsol stake, adding 705MW of operational solar and wind capacity in Spain. AI Commerce Trust: A PSE Consulting study finds many consumers in France and beyond accept ad-influenced AI shopping for free access, even as trust concerns remain. Illicit Tobacco Pressure: An EU report says illegal cigarettes now exceed 10% of consumption, driven largely by counterfeiting—reopening Brussels’ regulatory debate. French Defence Tech Expansion: EDGE Group opens EDGE Europe in Paris with a Bordeaux engineering hub to build sovereign defence capabilities. Insect Protein Scaling: Innovafeed secures €51m to ramp insect-based ingredients to industrial output at its Nesle facility. Nuclear Policy Push: NGOs urge stronger CTBT and NPT disarmament commitments as US nuclear weapons spending is reported to have surged past all other nuclear-armed states combined.

Defence & Sovereignty: EDGE launched EDGE Europe, a Paris-headquartered defence enterprise with an engineering/manufacturing hub in Bordeaux, aiming to industrialise advanced systems faster via a partner-driven ecosystem. Energy Transition: Japan and Britain are weighing a framework for offshore wind collaboration, with energy-security principles expected to feature at the G7 in France amid Strait of Hormuz risks. AI Infrastructure & Power: A new look at AI data centres highlights rising heat and electricity demand, while France’s push for more “AI campus” capacity faces rural and grid concerns. EU Capital Markets: Euroclear’s Project Pythagore targets putting France’s NEU CP short-term debt market on-chain using Banque de France wholesale CBDC rails, with a late-2026 pilot. Nuclear Oversight: The IAEA board adopted a resolution urging Iran to declare enriched uranium stockpiles and grant inspectors access, with France among the co-sponsors. Labour & Health: Malakoff Humanis reports French private-sector absenteeism at 4.3% in 2025, up 25.5% vs 2019, driven largely by long sick leaves and mental health. Industrial Tech & Mobility: Škoda released first sketches of its seven-seat electric Peaq SUV, premiering in France on June 23. Supply Chain Pressure: A global index shows manufacturers stockpiling at the highest level since early 2023 as shortages and transport costs stay elevated. Circular Economy: France’s recycling shake-up continues as Le Relais cuts jobs and shuts thousands of bins. Finance & Payments: Abbove deployed its wealth-planning platform at ING Belgium, expanding digital advisory experiences.

Defense & Aerospace: Germany says it wants a fair share in Airbus’ Next-Generation Single-Aisle (NGSA) work as the Airbus–Dassault Future Combat Air System fighter effort unravels, keeping industrial stakes front and center for Berlin and Paris. EU Competition: The European Commission is investigating Paramount’s $111bn Warner Bros. Discovery merger after Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds backed the deal, with foreign-subsidy rules now in play. Energy & Climate: Copernicus warns Europe’s extreme heat is becoming the norm, with May records and El Niño odds raising pressure on French industry and infrastructure planning. Nuclear Governance: The IAEA board passed a resolution demanding Iran declare uranium stockpiles and accept inspector access, escalating a wider Iran–US standoff with direct supply-chain and security spillovers. France–Africa Development: France and Togo set 2026–2028 cooperation priorities, highlighting AFD-backed gains in water, electricity, training and rural roads. Industrial Expansion: TeraPlast will buy Aliaxis’ MASA polyethylene pipes business in Spain, strengthening its Western Europe and North Africa footprint. Sports Business (World Cup): FIFA mandates three-minute hydration breaks in every match, creating new ad inventory for broadcasters as the 48-team tournament kicks off.

Climate Watch: The EU’s Copernicus monitor says May 2026 was the world’s second-warmest on record, with an unusually early heatwave hitting Western Europe and “feels-like” temperatures of 35–40°C in places, underlining how fast extremes are becoming normal. Aviation Carbon Rules: IATA launched a Supporting Alliance for CORSIA Eligible Emission Units to tackle credit-transfer bottlenecks between CORSIA and UN climate systems. Ocean Economy: A UNCTAD study finds ocean-related services hit $1.44tn in 2025 (58% of ocean trade), led by marine/coastal tourism and maritime freight—showing both opportunity and shock exposure. Defence Industry Politics: A new ECFR poll shows most Europeans back higher defence spending and buying more European-made weapons, feeding momentum for EU defence ramp-up funding. Tech & Legal Services: Legora is expanding in Europe with new offices in Madrid, Milan and Paris plus a London engineering hub, targeting 700 EMEA hires after a $600m Series D. Energy & Security Context: Markets stayed sensitive to Middle East tensions as the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk for shipping and fuel flows.

Semiconductors & Industry Investment: France is breaking ground on “Tessalia,” a €250m advanced semiconductor packaging plant in Le Barp, pairing Foxconn with Thales and Radiall to build Europe’s most advanced packaging capacity. Consumer Tech Regulation: France’s DGCCRF settlement forces Nintendo of Europe to pay a €35m fine over Switch Joy-Con drift, after regulators said the company knew about defects years earlier but disclosed them late. AI & Competition Policy: The European Commission orders Meta to let competing AI assistants access WhatsApp for free during its antitrust probe, aiming to protect competition in Europe’s fast-growing AI assistant market. Energy & Infrastructure: Technip Energies wins the Coral Norte FLNG contract, underlining continued LNG and offshore engineering demand. Mobility Innovation: Europe is coordinating large-scale robotaxi testing across borders, with France among the participating countries pushing a more unified regulatory approach. Food & Manufacturing: Ferrero is investing about $69.3m in France to expand Nutella production.

Aerospace & Defence: France and Germany have officially pulled the plug on the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) joint fighter jet programme, citing an inability to align industrial partners and work-sharing, with only parts of the broader “system of systems” concept expected to continue. Energy Transition (France): Technip Energies, Airbus, Safran and Tereos are teaming up to develop a Sustainable Aviation Fuel project in France via an Alcohol-to-Jet pathway at the Port of Dunkirk, targeting about 160,000 tons/year and backing EU aviation decarbonisation. Telecom M&A (France): Orange has signed an MoU to acquire SFR from Altice France in a deal framed as a major consolidation move for the French telecom market. Industrial Logistics (France): GEODIS is setting up a multi-service port hub in Le Havre, expanding its logistics footprint. EU Sanctions & Security: The EU is preparing a €90bn Ukraine loan rollout, with early tranches aimed at drones, alongside plans for new Russia-related listings targeting the war economy. Manufacturing Supply Chain: A market spotlight highlights Chinese aluminum cold-plate suppliers positioning for EV and battery storage thermal management demand. Labour & Migration (Switzerland, EU-linked): Swiss business leaders and unions are mobilising against a proposed immigration cap that they warn could worsen labour shortages and strain EU market access.

Defense Industry: France and Germany have scrapped the FCAS next-gen fighter jet program after years of deadlock, with leaders saying Dassault and Airbus can’t agree on leadership and specs—though work on drones and a linked combat network will continue. Aviation & Climate Policy: European airlines, including Air France-KLM, warn that extending the EU ETS to outbound international flights could push up fares and business costs, arguing they already face other emissions rules. Energy & Supply Chains: The G7 agriculture ministers met in Évian prep to tackle fertilizer supply risk after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, citing a sharp jump in nitrogen prices and the need to protect food security. Nuclear Oversight: The IAEA chief urged Iran to re-engage so inspections can resume, saying the communication channel is “broken.” Maritime & Shipping: Record orders for giant oil supertankers are outpacing the 2008 boom, driven by war-related disruptions and Strait of Hormuz strains. French Business: Ferrero is committing €60m to expand French production, while French telcos are advancing a major SFR acquisition deal. Environment: French Polynesia plans to expand fully protected “no-take” marine areas, banning all human activity over a larger stretch of its already vast protected ocean.

Aviation & Defense Industrial Push: Safran is moving deeper into precision and sensors with a €120m investment in navigation components, while Safran also scales aircraft engine maintenance via a US$118m JV—signals that France’s aerospace supply chain is gearing up for higher demand. AI & Trust Infrastructure: FORHU unveiled its GlassboxAI “Structured Cognitive Loop” at VivaTech in Paris, pitching traceable, auditable AI aligned with the EU AI Act—an industrial bet on explainability for regulated sectors. Healthcare Manufacturing: Sanofi’s Sarclisa got EU approval for subcutaneous use via an on-body injector, aiming to cut clinic burden and expand home/outpatient administration. Logistics & Ports: GEODIS opened a multi-service port hub in Le Havre, reinforcing France’s role in container and cargo consolidation. Circular Economy: French refurbishment leader Recommerce is highlighted alongside global buyback players as responsible electronics recycling demand rises. Energy & Grid Resilience: France’s data-centre ambitions face rural pushback, while EU energy shock measures and “super off-peak” electricity contracts underline the race to secure power for industry. Underwater Security: France joined a new multinational initiative to protect critical underwater infrastructure, targeting cables and energy links. Tech Regulation Watch: France’s telecom market continues to shift as operators pursue SFR acquisition deals, reshaping competition and investment plans.